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03 Sep 2025 15:46:09
There's been a lot of posts over the last few weeks about where we all 'think' or 'feel' we might finish the season in the league. This varies greatly from the pessimistic to the optimistic.
I thought I'd therefore explain the singular metric that I use for my conclusion, which is that Wolves will be in a relegation scrap again but should survive;
Total squad value / number of players in the squad = average player value.
Using this formula the relegation teams over the last few years should have been;
2024 Ipswich, Southampton, Leicester
2023 Burnley, Sheffield, Luton
2022 Leeds, Fulham, Bournemouth
2021 Norwich, Watford, Burnley
2020 Sheffield, West Brom, Burnley
So this year;
19-20th worst teams by far are Sunderland @ 7.9mil and Burnley @ 6.9mil per player,
17th-18th Wolves @ 11.9mil, Leeds @ 11.4mil
15th-16th Bournemouth @ 13.4mil, Brentford 12.7mil
11th-14th Everton, C Palace, West Ham, Fulham all very close on 14-15mil per player.
I'd be interested to hear if anyone else has an alternative metric that they've used for their prediction?!
1.) 03 Sep 2025 16:17:18
Just to ask where are you getting you player valuations from?
2.) 03 Sep 2025 16:18:37
No metric to use.
I think if the incoming players are VPs personal choices, then there is no excuse for failure.
With the current CBs used by VP, we'll be relegated due to the sheer number of mistakes gifting the opposition easy goals.
If he changes the defence, then we'll be comfortably in mid table.
3.) 03 Sep 2025 16:45:42
BullysBoy II I always use transfermarkt
4.) 03 Sep 2025 17:01:37
Wandering appreciate your views but if you review the goals conceded against West Ham both West Ham goals are due to poor closing down in the left fullback area. I'm not saying the CBs can't do better but the crosses should never be allowed in the first place!
The Everton goals all start with poor closing down in the defensive midfield area and then terrible marking in the RCB position. This is why it baffles me that Toti is getting so much stick.
5.) 03 Sep 2025 17:15:03
Slow and poor sideways passing leading to balls being lost and opposition to move forward presenting problems for us, molineuxway. Hesitation and lack of communication with fellow team members, loss of concentration and awareness. Not leading by example as captain. That's just an impression I get.
6.) 03 Sep 2025 18:50:30
The way I saw it is against Everton, Toti was out of position meaning S Bueno had to try and mark 2 players and failed.
Against Man City, Reijnders goal was as a result of a poor pass by Toti to Agbadou which put him under pressure.
When we were 3-2 down against Everton and looking to attack in the last 5 minutes, the ball went back to Toti at least 3 times and each time, he slowed down the game and allowed the Everton team to regain their positions. It got so bad that the fans started booing him.
7.) 03 Sep 2025 18:56:59
I'll be honest with you. Agbadou has been bad this season but Toti has been awful. Something needs to change in defence.
On Saturday, S Bueno was easily our best CB. He did the simple things well. Agbadou was poor but you could see he was looking goto play a pass and on at least 2 occasions had to cover to tackle a player that Toti had let past him.
Whenever Toti gets the ball, he does too much. Rather than try to beat tge opposition with skill (that he doesn't have), sometimes he just needs to hoof the ball clear.
8.) 03 Sep 2025 19:03:32
Has anyone watched the video 'Vitor Pereira breaks down his tactical identity' on youtube? I think this slowing down play and passing in triangles is the way they're being coached but it just hasn't clicked yet.
9.) 03 Sep 2025 19:47:29
Wandering I've got to say I've just watched the Everton goals back again and I think Andre is accountable for every one of them.
First one he and J Gomes are awol from their def mid zone allowing Mykolenko acres of space.
Second goal Andre again is out of position giving Dewsbury Hall acres of space, Sa saves and the ball ends up at Anrdre's feet, he should put it into touch. When it works it's way back into the box Santi is a headless chicken.
Last one in fairness is a short pass by Toti but Andre stands rooted to the spot, he makes no movement towards the ball at all.
10.) 03 Sep 2025 20:12:51
Well, all the fans leaving the ground on Saturday all thought Toti and Agbadou were useless. I haven't watched the goals and am only recalling what I saw at the match.
11.) 03 Sep 2025 22:57:37
Looking at it Mol the way Transfer market works out player values is mostly on players wages and league standing. I suppose what I'm saying is that surely all the 'should have been' teams is just list of the teams promoted the previous year (sorry I can't be bothered to check)?!
If so then what is concerning is that despite all our years in the Prem we basically have a squad with an average value of a Champ team by the look of it? Let's hope that's not self fulfilling eh. Another metric to consider while we sit in 17th of your metric would be that Sunderland finished the window £120m in the red, we on the other hand finished £13.5m in the black!
Defo interesting viewing but to be honest I'm not sure it makes me feel better or worse about our chances! ??
12.) 03 Sep 2025 23:54:00
Bully, no It's far more complex than that, and wage isn't used although contract expiry years are, the jargon is;
'Transfermarkt calculates player value using a qualitative, crowd-sourced approach driven by community input and experienced moderators, not an algorithm, to estimate a player's market value at a given time. Key factors include a player's talent, performance, potential, age, injury history, and contract situation, all weighed through discussions to reach a community-agreed estimate of a player's worth in a free market'
As an example Burnley paid Man City 17m for James Trafford when his value was 15m, even though he spent a season in the Champ his performances increased his value to 22m, he resigned for Man City @ 31m but his value will stay at 22m unless his form/age etc dictates otherwise. He's not worth any more in prem than champ.
It is very often the 3 teams that get promoted that are the likeliest to be relegated but mainly because their quality of squad is simply worse and therefore lower in value, and there is very limited potential to improve it due to PSR limitations!
13.) 04 Sep 2025 00:08:50
Believe me I share your concern, I didn't even post the findings on how our average player value has depreciated year on year and how that exactly correlates to slipping down the league, it's too soon!
Just as an experiment I applied the same metric to the Championship. The likely top finishers are;
Ipswich €6.64m,
Southampton €6.40m,
Leicester City €5.78m,
Coventry €4.20m,
Sheffield United €3.84m,
Birmingham €3.74m,
Middlesbrough €3.62m,
West Bromwich €3.50m
27 Aug 2025 10:01:22
Good result last night but It's actually left me slightly more worried than I previously was. Is it just me or are R Gomes and H Bueno just not wingbacks, their positional sense and marking is terrible and even if they do track their man there's no tackle or physicality to pressure their man. They're good going forward so play them more advanced?
Jackson conversely looks great attacking and defending.
That leads me to my other concern, how can forwards so easily ghost through the middle of 2 CBs in a 3 man defence? It may be a lack of organisation but they seem oblivious to who they're meant to be marking.
It's not all bad though Arias looks like he's almost up to speed, we're solid in the centre of the park, Sasa looks like he can do a job as super sub and JSL is top notch. If Fosun are even slightly tempted to take £60mil for him I can't see that they're achieving a thing. The going rate for a proven goal scorer at the top level is £65-£75mil (Mbuemo, Cunha, Pedro, Gyorkes, Sesko), and then you've got to convince the club to sell and the player to come.
1.) 27 Aug 2025 10:33:14
I agree they are better at going forward than defending but if we had a proper leader at the back you would likely see them improve. Individually we have good defenders but you need that vocal commander to keep everyone switched on and organized. To many player runs are not tracked and that's why it looks and is so easy to get through our defence.
last night we looked good when we picked up the tempo. Moved the ball around quicker and players moving into space and coming short when needed. Most of the game players just didn't move into space or was that far apart a pass wasn't on. When pressing at times we did it well when all players pressed but then other times a few players didn't bother or timing was wrong and teams will just play through you easily.
I would like to see Sasa on with Larson as I think they would cause some problems if we get the ball into the box. Add another pacey attacker and midfielder and organise the defence I think we could have a half decent season.
2.) 27 Aug 2025 10:33:57
Regarding ricardo and Hugo, ricardo dosnt have the defending awareness I agree and jackson has, coupled with blistering pace the rwb is his.
Hugo on the other hand is in the RAN mold (ish), good going forward, not as cutting as ran but a better defender and after his showing last night, imo, gets the lwb over Wolfe.
Having watched Hugo through the U21s he can be a wonder, capable of his fair share of goals from the left.
We've looked open at the back with toti and agbadu not seemingly communicating last night the pairings again didn't seem to know what the other was doing, Santi on the left supporting Hugo did well but what was going on behind him was the trouble. Maybe the new guy will level things out in there.?
Sadly I reckon we'll lose Jsl if Newcastle come back with a 60m offer and that'll necessitate a change of approach up front unless Sasa is to make his mark.
The roller coaster is now only just to begin.
3.) 27 Aug 2025 11:16:10
As it stands Jackson is a shoo in, HUgo possibly just gets the nod over Wolfe due to his attacking threat, but the space he repeatedly gave Ward Prowse was criminal,
Santi had a very good game and has possibly given VP a headache, he also seems to marshal the defence and I wonder whether the best 3 would be him between Agba/Toti.
The JSL saga will play itself out but Sasa is surely not the answer, he was out of gas after 10mins, he'll improve but it might take until xmas for him to be fully right.
22 Aug 2025 11:12:22
It looks like we finally have a balanced squad with 2 players to cover every position.
We can actually field a solid starting 11;
Sa Jackson Agbadou Krejci Toti Wolfe Andre Gomes Arias RGomes Larsen, and the covering players (mostly) are up to the task;
Johnstone Hoever Mosquera Bueno Doherty Bueno Munetsi Bellegarde Hwang Lopez Kalajdzic (+Bentley Silva)
I expect a couple of changes in the last week of the transfer market, probably revolving around Silva and Hwang, but that doesn't look like a relegation squad to me, unless we're stupid enough to sell our ONLY proven goal threat.
1.) 22 Aug 2025 14:07:39
That’s the problem though, we are stupid enough. Or rather Jeff is together with whoever else has a say in running the club.
And I’m sorry to say it, but it looks like a relegation squad to me.
2.) 22 Aug 2025 16:46:51
Molineux - once again we are speaking from the same hymn sheet - see my post this morning - re Rated's announcement of Krecji.
I'd have Yerson in for Toti and would still want another WF instead of R Gomes.
I also think another back up CM and CF are required.
But for me selling the 2 Bueno's, Hwang and Silva should fund all that.
Get Veiga in to cover a number of roles, (last mention I promise), a CF on loan/free - Origi mentioned elsewhere on the site (apologies to the poster) and perhaps a loan for someone like Trossard from Arsenal of Barnes from Newcastle or Bobb from City?
Ps Crazy idea - ask City for Ederson - he won't have to move home, he can still speak Portuguese to everyone, (practically), and he can play in Prem not in the Turkish league. In the World cup year that has to be a plus?
Sell Sa and Johnstone and get someone like Fraser Forster as back up
A huge upgrade and given the low fee City seemingly want might even save the club money - pre wages!
3.) 22 Aug 2025 17:30:01
Thefutureisoldgold1 I've just read your post and indeed it does mirror my thoughts.
The GK situation is an interesting one, assuming we can find a buyer/loan for Johnstone, who I think signed for us believing Sa was a gonna, I'd like to see competition with Sa but preferably younger, I noticed today that Leeds are trying to offload Illan Meslier at £4mil, I've always rated him.
Again on the assumption that the Hwang deal get's done the more I've seen of Christantis Uche I think he's just the man and apparently it's at an advanced stage of negotiation.
A loan with Prem experience would be the icing on the cake but it would have to be a tryer and not someone who could harm the pack (Garnacho etc)
4.) 22 Aug 2025 18:02:28
Something that might really influence any transfer business is the homegrown rule, we are now at our limit of 17 and therefore any overseas players sold can be replaced but without outgoings they couldn't be registered. For the same reason if a homegrown player, e.g. Johnstone, was sold he could only be replaced by another HG.
5.) 22 Aug 2025 20:04:12
Indeed - I would certainly sell Bueno S, Hwang, Fabio and possibly Sasa, (if any one will have any of them), to make room for players who can and are willing to contribute.
However more HG would be helpful - back up keeper almost certainly has to be!
Uche is allegedly one that Vitor has asked for so who am I to argue?
The club can also add under 21s I believe but of course once they pass that age they have to take one of the slots.
20 Aug 2025 16:35:06
Adrien Rabiot on the cheap anyone, maybe even free. Wages are high but quality and experienced, possibly a bit of an attitude though!
19 Aug 2025 13:10:25
Callum Doyle on the verge of an £8mil transfer to Wrexham, surely he's the type of left footed LCB option we need to provide squad depth. He'd probably force his way into a regular starter before seasons end.
1.) 19 Aug 2025 13:42:18
Unfortunately for us Wrexham are a far more ambitious club than we are
Pains me to say it but that’s a fact ditto blues
We are in a period of decline that’s been going on for 4 years now
16 Sep 2025 22:49:39
p.s. BullysBoy II the definition of an opinion is; 'a view or judgement formed about something, not necessarily based on fact or knowledge'
The figures that I've posted are facts.
If you try sell your house, car or a club try to sell a player way above achievable market value it just sits on the market.
16 Sep 2025 22:39:44
BullysBoy II I wasn't responding to Old Wulf's point and I'm not sure how I could prove or disprove it as he simply stated 'We couldn't get any more for Cunha because of the release clause negotiated in January' that is a fact.
I was attempting to disprove the claim that we undersell our players.
I believe my figures comparing similar player sales confirm this.
You are actually wrong, their are 5 inter Premiership sales referenced and it's pretty apparent that we sell within a reasonable price 'range'. If you're suggesting that we should only compare these it makes the 'range' even closer (+23.7% - +36.4% and +4.2% - +5.1%)
Cunha 60m / 74.2m (+23.7%)
Mbuemo 55m / 75m (+36.4%)
Eze 55m / 69.3m (+26%)
Ait Nouri 35m / 36.8m (+5.1%)
Kerkez 45m / 46.9m (+4.2)
I've got no idea what the purchase price of the players has got to do with it, purchase price and value have very little to do with each other. Market value is what someone is willing to pay and unless someone can supply contradictory evidence it seems that we sell at the right price.
15 Sep 2025 15:41:00
I don't know where this under-selling fallacy comes from. Player valuations are the same as anything else, cars, houses etc. They're calculated by sales of similar commodities.
Hence when the buying club is pursuing a player that the selling club isn't actively attempting to sell a 'markup' can be expected.
For instance similar player sales to Cunha/Ait Nouri in the recent market were (value/sale price in euros);
Cunha 60m / 74.2m (+23.7%)
Simons 70m / 65m (-9.1%)
Mbuemo 55m / 75m (+36.4)
Eze 55m / 69.3m (+26%)
Ait Nouri 35m / 36.8m (+5.1%)
Kerkez 45m / 46.9m (+4.2)
Hato 35m / 44.18m (+26.2)
Frimpong 50m / 40m (-20%)
03 Sep 2025 10:38:22
The only free agent that I think could offer us something is Hakim Ziyech, but that would give us the headache of finding a loan destination for Sasa AND either Santi or Mosquera.
03 Sep 2025 09:37:13
Absolutely no chance. He played 185mins of football last season whilst getting paid £70k per week.
We've got 6 CBs and Doherty is bottom of the pile and I'd rather see him play.
Besides we're already one man over the overseas allocation, we need to lose a player!
07 Oct 2025 09:58:02
BullysBoy II, you beat me to the reply, and said pretty much the same thing but more eloquently ?
07 Oct 2025 09:53:40
Surely the reason they were willing to sell Hwang is simple, they had interest from Crystal Palace and needed to create an overseas spot in the squad for Uche at the time.
There is no conspiracy theory, he's just getting the nod at the moment as the alternatives are unproven and not specialists in his role in this system.
30 Sep 2025 16:11:03
Good opportunity to get some points on the board in the next few matches. Personally I'd like to see us in a 4-1-4-1;
Johnstone
Jackson, S Bueno, Krejci, H Bueno
Andre
R Gomes, Munetsi, J Gomes, Arias
JSL
However I think we'll go back to 3-4-2-1, in that scenario the strongest team is probably;
Johnstone
Agbadou, S Bueno, Krejci
Jackson, Munetsi, J Gomes, H Bueno
Arias, R Gomes
JSL
Any thoughts?
29 Sep 2025 13:19:39
WS. Whilst I agree that Hwang should be dropped, probably for R Gomes or Bellegarde, I thought we played much better after the subs in a back 5. No surprise really as the players have been recruited specifically to play that system. For example we don't have defensive fullbacks, they're all very much wingbacks.
I'd like to see the majority of the team keep their place, certainly Munetsi and S Bueno. But I can't see how Doc, Mosquera, Lopez or Hwang can start on current evidence.
28 Sep 2025 14:49:09
It's comical really. Can't understand why we're talking about Alli or any other signings, the transfer window is closed.
We've assembled our squad, they're just starting to suss out how to play together. Let's just back them?!
Wrexham have now turned down the chance to sign Alli, he's now considering league 1 teams.