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01 Aug 2022 10:13:12
Our opening 6 games are Leeds (a), Fulham (h), Tot (a), Newc (h), Bourn (a) and South (h)
How many points do you think we need/will get from our first 6 matches - noting that immediately after that we play Liverpool, City, Chelsea and WH with only City at home.
Clearly nothing ever works out exactly and over the season we will drop points where we should have got them and pick up points where they weren't expected but basically for me the base line i.e. points for comfortable survival is say 43
Beat the 10 clubs lowest (bar us) in the league at home and draw away then draw at home with the next 3. This means defeats home and away to the top 6 and defeats away at the 7th to 9th teams.
Clearly adding to that base is simply a question of a few less defeats and few more wins. This can come from anywhere but turning some of the draws in to wins against the lower teams away or maybe avoiding defeat at home to some to the better teams is an obvious example.
So, depending on where you put Newcastle - are they really going to be a 7-9th team, overtaking WH, Leicester, Brighton, CP and Villa to name the obvious candidates - the points total for me is something like this
0-5 Doomed
6-11 Relegation battle
12-15 Comfortable mid table - maybe Europa at top end
16+ Hello Champions league!
Before Jimenez's (and other injuries), injury I was pretty comfortable we would be in the middle two bands hopefully near their intersection - say 11 points?
Thoughts

Agree0 Disagree0

01 Aug 2022 10:28:55
It's a long season who knows we may get 5 points in first 6 games then go on a run of winning.
I think with us the wolves nothing cease's to amaze.
Lol lose to lower teams and beat the top teams.
But on paper and reading reports from sporting game I'm pretty much exactly the same as your last paragraph Thefutureisoldgold.

01 Aug 2022 10:38:35
That's a clinical view of it Tfig. I personally think that we should be expecting to take at least 10 points given the circumstances as are, and that over the season with 5 subs breaks etc we will be in comfortable figures at the end. Truth of the matter is we started poor last year, were pushing for champions league then seemed to lose the will. Motivation will be a big factor and the introduction/necessity of using youth players may provide a spark more. It'll be an interesting season no matter what but if we can get off with 3 points away that'll be a great spur.

01 Aug 2022 10:47:55
Phil - completely agree. Certainly under Nuno that was def the case - I think Huddersfield did the double over us the year they went down but we beat several of the big teams - some even away!
Also agree that nothing is set in stone but given the next 4 if we had 5 points after 6 and then 5 after 10 I think most other teams' attitude towards us would change and we would find ourselves under pressure from weaker teams changing their approach to playing us to "expecting to win" from "hoping not to lose".
Our own team's morale would take some managing as well as would the crowd and management's reactions/response.
Lets hope we start fine and don't have to worry about that!

01 Aug 2022 10:57:39
100% agree Thefutureisoldgold and Abbey,
I have just realised to myself (it's Monday morning at work and my mind hadn't clicked fully)
Jiminez may not be out for all 6 games
Say Jiminez plays 3 out the 6 games then I feel thise games will be 9 points in the bag 95% banking on it.
I'm not sure Whang will be match fit enough come Saturday that is if Lage should pick him and he contributes well.
I'm mot sure on Traore is he match fit?
If he is fit enough for the bench then last 20 minutes or so that will give us hope to win us the game.

01 Aug 2022 12:51:55
TFIOG If I'm honest I would have preferred a few of the top 6. We lost points against our opening 3 last season but then went on a nice run once we got into the groove. I've no idea how many points we'll get but if we foul up we will have used up a qurter of our good point scoring games. Right now I'ld take 6 to 12.

01 Aug 2022 13:47:53
I think the approach will be different phil, if we simply count goals scored raul hasn't really been setting us on fire, his very presence and work rate is the difference. With neto podance mgw we get a broader wider and more distanced approach at goal, if we then have dendonker getting forward and neves/mouts supporting we have different dynamics. Hwang I hoped would seize the chance and go straight down the middle, this seems very unlikely. So I'm far from thinking we are/were a one man band up front, we definitely need that, but we can attack we can/will score but we need that body where it needs to be to turn something from nothing.

01 Aug 2022 15:08:31
Really difficult to speculate as there have been changes to most of the other teams in the league and some will click quickly and others will need a bit of time to find their rhythm. The pre season went quite well and if we can build on that we may be pleasantly surprised. What we do need to avoid is a repetition of the last 10 games of last season or we will be in the mire.

01 Aug 2022 18:02:50
Arddunby - agree use up some free hits to get into rhythm/practice not 6 pointers! But it is what it is.
Abbey - clinical - analytical?
My second post re the psychological aspect of a poor opening run on opponents mindset is perhaps more important. If we are cast adrift - don't think we will be - after 10 games I think it will be v hard for all to overcome this. Hence these first 6 are v important.
Winton agree - most sides with perhaps Leicester as the only obvious exception have been far more active than us. Not all though have clearly improved and others may take time to bed down - Leeds for example have changed a vast amount and may be vulnerable?

01 Aug 2022 19:19:30
Clinical in the efficient unattached way Tfig, I appreciate the suggestions points wise but as said before this will be a season like no other so perhaps we shouldn't make assumptions too soon. If we do take 16-18 points would you still expect us to be champions league or is that fun? Because we could say that regarding the tallies you give. Seriously I understand what your suggesting I'm just saying we may grow as a team and find ourselves again or acquire new faces. Whatever I'm sure we will all be willing Brunos selections from the start. Can't wait to find out more on Saturday.

01 Aug 2022 21:54:52
Abbey - fair point.
I agree even if we get 16-18 points you are correct i'm not sure we would be champ league bound - mind you if after 10 games we had 20-22ish points then expectations would rise sharply.
Sadly though if we have sub 6 after the 6 and thus almost certainly sub 6 after 10 then that would be v v hard to recover from.
So I sadly do think these first 6, of largely "winnable" games, are v important for the club.
Maybe though we will grow or alter over the first few weeks of the season as we did indeed last year after the first 5!
Obviously I also agree that new players may come in and then of course all bets are off. That is the case though for all 20 teams so naturally our prospects/challenges make get worse or better depending on what happens in the last month of the window at Wolves and elsewhere.

02 Aug 2022 07:06:04
Absolutely agree Tfig, the first 6 are going to mark our card, but if we lose the 1st 2 I'm not going to be one of those doom merchant who says our seasons over. Repeating myself again but this is a season like no other.

02 Aug 2022 07:14:16
I'm sticking to my prediction months ago a Neto brace agaisnt Leeds.
No way can it be a 3-2 loss again.
Maybe Collins bullet header from off a corner or even kilman surging run from defence rounding the keeper to slot home.
A neves freekick in off the underside of the bar.
Whang overhead scissor kick umm not sure about that one.
My point anything is possible,until the match is over it can not be discounted however unlikely or likely.
COYW

02 Aug 2022 09:35:42
Love the hwang thought phil. But I'm with you all the way COYW

02 Aug 2022 16:48:27
Lol Abbey I'm adding dendonker to my list a 37 yard grub hunter from dendonker near enough the same as mouthino daisy slicer lol I added two.derrr.who cares were happy wolves fans A we lol.
Can't wait till Saturday mate ?
COYW





 

 

 
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