Wolves Rumours 20301

 

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22 Jun 2022 15:08:16
Ki-Janna to PSV. Does this mean we can reallocate the number 2 jersey to someone more fitting?

Agree0 Disagree0

22 Jun 2022 17:23:07
Bolla.

22 Jun 2022 17:58:52
nobody coming in now, fosun took a right hammering

22 Jun 2022 20:16:04
Harry I assume you are referring to the very worrying news from Bloomsberg today?! And yes whilst I don't pretend to entirely understand all aspects of Fosun business model (by the sound of it niether do their investors and that's half the problem) but the fact is when news comes out that some of there largest investors are becoming nervous over their liquidity levels (or rather lack of) it doesn't bode well for our transfer window! Jeff may be telling us fans there's no knock on but I'm afraid that just can't be true, not when the very thing we need to operate effectively in the transfer market is the availible funds to beat other teams to the same signings. Worry times indeed ?

22 Jun 2022 23:39:59
BB - Just read the Bloomberg article, worrying indeed.
Sadly I no longer have access to Moody's reports, (they, in case you are unaware, are the worlds leading credit rating agency and publish detailed reports on the financial health of companies including Fosun - I will get in touch with friends who have when I come back from hols next week and will see what Moody's say and let you know), but it appears Moody's are going to downgrade Fosun again, (last did so in 2020). Note it is already rated Ba3 defined as Junk and regarded as speculative.
Even more worrying it would appear from the bloomberg article that their 2025 maturity bonds trade at 50p in the pound and therefore now yield well over 20%!
Note having looked at their March 2022 investors presentation on their 2021 results - which on the face of it look ok! - they state that their debt at that stage yielded an average of just 4.6% - a million miles from over 20% just 3 months later but not massively out of kilter with the information in the bloomberg article!
This 4.6% rate is probably in line with the rates expected for a Ba3 company ie a lowly rated one but 20%?is clearly not appropriate for any signifincant serious going concern?
{Note the whole rating issue is odd cf "ok" comment re results - I need to read more closely to remove their "gloss" and see why Moody's are so negative about the company or as I am v lazy read the Moody's report}
I like you hadn't previously ever looked at their accounts or indeed knew anything about their business, (having always assumed the headline of - "its huge and highly succesful" was true). I actually dealt with one of their UK businesses a few years back and it was indeed succesful.
But if people are selling a less than 3 year bond for 50p in the pound they basically are saying they are bust!
This is supported by "headlines" stating that they can't meet their payments due over next 12 months, ( liquidity crunch) so I fear it is going to be a rocky ride and we certainly can't expect any funds to be injected from China.
Bet they now also regret not selling after Seville when the club would have been worth perhaps what £400m? Now I imagine they would be lucky to get £150m - which after their debt write off would mean a loss on the investment!
Sadly without, (pretty major), investment this summer that valuation is only going one way as we are now paying the price of a total lack of succession planning for: 1) the not hard to predict Saiss, Boly and Moutinho growing old, 2) the unfortunate Netto, Otto and Jimenez getting potentially career ending injuries and 3) the perhaps understandable Neves and Traore's ambitions exceeding ours.
Fingers crossed but this was not what I was hoping to read about on here!

23 Jun 2022 06:56:00
Tfig, being an absolute ignoramus when it comes to financial institutions how are Fosun actually set up? Is it just one big business or does it 'lend' its 'name' to subsidiaries? Are Wolverhampton wanderers their own in identity and hold our own assets and investments? I'm baffling myself here, I suppose I mean are we a brand of fosun now? Or do they just employ the staff sort of thing? Do they merely see pound dollar euros whatever under our name? If I'm a member (which I am) of wolves am I really just a subscriber of fosun?

23 Jun 2022 06:58:50
Alternatively.
Fosun's Innovative Achievements Continue to Make Breakthroughs
JUNE 21, 2022 PUBLISHED AT 10:04 AM
Source: asianone.com
Fosun has been leveraging its long-term accumulation of innovation and comprehensive globalization capabilities to drive growth with profound industry operations and industrial investment, demonstrating high resilience in its four major segments of Health, Happiness, Wealth, and Intelligent Manufacturing. In addition, Fosun is in a sound financial position with abundant cash flow and continues to optimize its debt structure. On 1 June, S&P Global Ratings affirmed Fosun's outlook as 'stable'. With the gradual easing of the epidemic, the core long-term innovation and globalization capabilities accumulated by Fosun during its industrial development have become the core driving force for the strong recovery of its business.

23 Jun 2022 07:25:41
In my simple thinking world fosun investment in us is long term so how I see it like many long term investments the asset price may go up may go down at the beginning years but eventually it will grow bigger and bigger.

23 Jun 2022 08:01:44
Rugeley
As I said I always thought it was huge and highly succesful having never looked at it before but I guess I would make 3 points to your comment:
1) the investor presentation which I skimmed yesterday does indeed say everything is great - I erely skimmed it but will look iin more detail and ask some qs to people in the markets.
2) the people you are quoting are an asian site not an american one and therefore may be more "generous" to Fosun and much of what it says is also merely parroting the investor presentation produced by Fosun itself
3) S and P affirmed the outlook as stable - but stable at BB i.e.as Junk and speculative!
If there are people willing to sell their debt at 50 p in the pound those people are clearly v v worried that they aren't going to be repaid in 2025 or why on earth would you sell at such a masive loss?.
Clearly I only have the Bloomberg article to confirm this but will ask friends in the market to check if it is the case- you can buy Fosun debt in the London market - bloomberg however are a v reputable source and so it is highly likely to be true!
Abbey I believe Wolves are a 100% owned subsidary of Fosun - although it will undoubtedly be via a myriad of intermediate holding companies in a vast corporate spiders web. So yes every penny you spend at Wolves goes (from a reporting point of view) directly into Fosuns accounts but naturally in reality it first goes into Wolves accounts and there are lots of protections about paying dividends up to parent companies and some about lending it up - you will see in the accounts that there are indeed lots of intercompany transactions both ways and only last year Fosun wrote off a huge loan it had made to Wolves - as I said at the time this merely recognises the fact that Wolves are also financially incapable of paying that loan back!
Phil this issue isn't about Wolves financial viability - it is although not strong perfectly safe in my view - it is about Fosun's. However as a Chinese company our visibility of its affairs is undoubtedly weaker that it would be if it was a western concern and naturally its linkage to the state - although officially a private firm - is probably quite strong and thus it may move more in line with the state that it would were it a British firm for both good and bad.
At present I would not worry too much as Fosun have not been investing in Wolves for two years now and it is surely not expecting Wolves to pay monies to it but merely continue to stand alone. Wolves can do this but it will be v hard particualrly given the mistakes made by Jeff over the last 2 years - signing Fabio, Semedo and Hwang for example for masively overinflated prices and wages.
If we can hang on in the prem and some of our young prospects mature we might be ok. But clearly this year is going to be v tough especially if Neves does leave.

23 Jun 2022 08:37:39
Hi Thefutureisoldgold.
USA "anti" v Asia "pro".that aside we agree that Wolves, as all parts of Fosun's empire, have to stand alone.
Sadly, my constant theme is that the management that Fosun are allowing to run Wolves, is not up to the job.
You have given great examples on the money wasted on Silva and Semedo.
Fosun must fix this, we can't have a 5th bad transfer window in a row. If we fail to sign "goals" in the next few weeks, it could be the end of Premiership football.
That means a huge loss in value on an asset for Fosun and fans severely disappointed!

23 Jun 2022 08:39:07
Thanks for reply Thefutureisoldgold ?
I worry about wolves but only in the natural being a fan way,
I don't worry about signing silva semedo whang putting our club in a backwards step and making things overly tougher as you and others do.
I believe its really hard for our club to achieve its goals and even harder when fans don't see investment in the last 2 years but I can not see us failing as a lot of wolves fans are frustratedly extremely concerned about our prospects next season.
Wait and see what happens in the coming weeks and hopefully the high tide of concern will diminish greatly.
Ps enjoy your hols lol I'm envious but happy for you,very hot sticky in the dungeon in brum.

23 Jun 2022 08:54:14
Like you Phil I cannot see us failing and I don't believe Fosun want WWFC to fail

23 Jun 2022 09:11:06
Since the Europa league elimination against Sevilla, I recall posting on several occasions (trawl through previous posts, if possible) my 'tired, lame' but accurate sound byte of three steps forward and ten steps backwards, appertaining to this club we all love.
Sadly and with out ceremony, my prophetic doom mongering is beginning to manifest itself where the running of Wolverhampton Wanderers is concerned. Successive poor transfer windows,Thelwell and Dalrymple moving out-and more importantly not being replaced by people who are proficient enough to improve the club, appointment of a 'cheap' option head coach, and now the realisation that I think we were all in fear of-Fosun's financial predicament impinging upon any worthwhile recruitment. The players we have been linked with-and I realise that several transfer links are red herrings-will not come to this club-for whatever reason, and to lose some of them to promoted clubs is shambolic to say the least. I see no other outcome than relegation this season-YES I have predicted that before, but sadly this time I am afraid that prediction will come to fruition. I can only hope that a situation similar to the one undergone at Newcastle manifests itself and somehow we are taken over, because the message from me at least is clear-Fosun thank you for everything, but in the current climate Please sell to someone who can take Wolves forward. The snide cackles of derision are beginning to holler in Smethwick and Erdington I fear.

23 Jun 2022 09:16:37
TFIOG thanks for the analysis. I heard Monday night that the rumours about not being able to get money out of China were true amongst other things about the club, some of which have been suggested here previously and I had taken with a bit of salt. The initial source was supposedly within the club. The details you have posted suggest investors in Fosun seriously lack confidence as my understanding of bonds is the yield is fixed (interest rate) and the bond price should move towards its face value as it approaches maturity. So you are saying holders of a £1000 bond are willing to sell it for £500 now rather than wait until 2025 to get paid back £1000!

23 Jun 2022 11:12:11
Just to clarify here gents no one is saying that as a club Wolves are in any immediate danger. What we are saying is that if some of Fosuns biggest investors are becoming nervous then we probably should be as well. Many times before a company has been called 'to big to fail' only to go on and prove that to be entirely wrong! With this I would also just point out that a third party branding a company as 'stable' is FAR from reassuring particularly in the current climate. Because by its very nature stable is not a strong position it is in fact just one step above concerning or even worse unstable/volatile! Future clearly has a far better grasp on this stuff than most (defo me anyway) so I appreciate the analysis as always Future, even if I don't like the conclusion ?

23 Jun 2022 13:48:51
It seems that the core issue is the 2 month lock down in China and the impact this has had on business there, with property developers hit hard. Some seem to be trying to cover debt by issuing junk bonds at crazy rates of 20%. Desperate stuff! Fosun seem to have been suckled into the turmoil as investors abandon bonds. Even sound ones. A way to go before the dust settles, but China is easing lock down and it can crank up activity very quickly to avoid a major collapse. Simply if companies like Fosun go, China is done.

23 Jun 2022 17:11:20
future. Good to read your analysis very insightful compared to anything I understand on my own! Good to see you posting again even if it may only be briefly, good to read anyway. Have a good holiday I would normally offer to come and help carry your suitcase ? but as you know I'm kind of incapable of that at the moment!of carrying anything tbh. Have a wonderful time and best wishes to the family!





 

 

 
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